An approach to extend Cross-Impact Balance method in multiple timespans

TL;DR

This paper introduces a simplified extension of the Cross-Impact Balance method for multiple timespans, using the concept of 'scenario weight' to facilitate policy formulation and scenario building.

Contribution

It proposes a new approach to extend CIB in multiple timespans that simplifies the workflow compared to existing dynamic CIB methods.

Findings

Simplified workflow for multi-timespan CIB

Enhanced usability for policy makers

Potential for broader application in social sciences

Abstract

Cross-Impact Balance Analysis (CIB) is a widely used method to build scenarios and help researchers to formulate policies in different fields, such as management sciences and social sciences. During the development of the CIB method over the years, some derivative methods were developed to expand its application scope, including a method called dynamic CIB. However, the workflow of dynamic CIB is relatively complex. In this article, we provide another approach to extend CIB in multiple timespans based on the concept 'scenario weight' and simplify the workflow to bring convenience to the policy makers.