Quantile regression outcome-adaptive lasso: variable selection for causal quantile treatment effect estimation

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel covariate selection method for estimating quantile treatment effects, improving bias and efficiency by accounting for covariate heterogeneity across outcome distribution quantiles.

Contribution

The paper proposes the QROAL method, which uses linear quantile regression for covariate selection in propensity score models tailored to different QTEs, addressing a gap in previous approaches.

Findings

QROAL outperforms OAL in variable selection accuracy.

QROAL achieves lower root mean square error in simulations.

Application to CHARLS data reveals insights into smoking's impact on depression severity.

Abstract

Quantile treatment effects (QTEs) can characterize the potentially heterogeneous causal effect of a treatment on different points of the entire outcome distribution. Propensity score (PS) methods are commonly employed for estimating QTEs in non-randomized studies. Empirical and theoretical studies have shown that insufficient and unnecessary adjustment for covariates in PS models can lead to bias and efficiency loss in estimating treatment effects. Striking a balance between bias and efficiency through variable selection is a crucial concern in casual inference. It is essential to acknowledge that the covariates related treatment and outcome may vary across different quantiles of the outcome distribution. However, previous studies have overlooked to adjust for different covariates separately in the PS models when estimating different QTEs. In this article, we proposed the quantile regression outcome-adaptive lasso (QROAL) method to select covariates that can provide unbiased and efficient estimates of QTEs. A distinctive feature of our proposed method is the utilization of linear quantile regression models for constructing penalty weights, enabling covariate selection in PS models separately when estimating different QTEs. We conducted simulation studies to show the superiority of our proposed method over the outcome-adaptive lasso (OAL) method in variable selection. Moreover, the proposed method exhibited favorable performance compared to the OAL method in terms of root mean square error in a range of settings, including both homogeneous and heterogeneous scenarios. Additionally, we applied the QROAL method to datasets from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to explore the impact of smoking status on the severity of depression symptoms.