CME Propagation Through the Heliosphere: Status and Future of Observations and Model Development

TL;DR

This paper reviews current understanding and modeling of CME propagation through the heliosphere, emphasizing observational challenges, model limitations, and future directions for improving space weather prediction over the next decade.

Contribution

It summarizes recent progress, identifies open questions, and outlines future research directions to enhance CME modeling and space weather forecasting.

Findings

Limitations due to observational uncertainties affect model reliability.

Increasing solar activity complicates interplanetary space modeling.

Combining observations and models improves understanding of CME propagation.

Abstract

The ISWAT clusters H1+H2 have a focus on interplanetary space and its characteristics, especially on the large-scale co-rotating and transient structures impacting Earth. SIRs, generated by the interaction between high-speed solar wind originating in large-scale open coronal magnetic fields and slower solar wind from closed magnetic fields, are regions of compressed plasma and magnetic field followed by high-speed streams that recur at the ca. 27 day solar rotation period. Short-term reconfigurations of the lower coronal magnetic field generate flare emissions and provide the energy to accelerate enormous amounts of magnetised plasma and particles in the form of CMEs into interplanetary space. The dynamic interplay between these phenomena changes the configuration of interplanetary space on various temporal and spatial scales which in turn influences the propagation of individual structures. While considerable efforts have been made to model the solar wind, we outline the limitations arising from the rather large uncertainties in parameters inferred from observations that make reliable predictions of the structures impacting Earth difficult. Moreover, the increased complexity of interplanetary space as solar activity rises in cycle 25 is likely to pose a challenge to these models. Combining observational and modeling expertise will extend our knowledge of the relationship between these different phenomena and the underlying physical processes, leading to improved models and scientific understanding and more-reliable space-weather forecasting. The current paper summarizes the efforts and progress achieved in recent years, identifies open questions, and gives an outlook for the next 5-10 years. It acts as basis for updating the existing COSPAR roadmap by Schrijver+ (2015), as well as providing a useful and practical guide for peer-users and the next generation of space weather scientists.