A time variability test for neutrino sources identified by IceCube

TL;DR

This paper introduces TAUNTON, a non-parametric method to test if neutrino sources identified by IceCube are consistent with being steady over time, applied to data from NGC 1068 and TXS 0506+056.

Contribution

The paper presents TAUNTON, a novel unbinned statistical test for detecting deviations from steady neutrino emission in IceCube data.

Findings

NGC 1068 is consistent with steady neutrino emission (p-value 0.9).

TXS 0506+056 shows no significant time variability (1.7σ).

TAUNTON is sensitive to arbitrary deviations from steady sources.

Abstract

IceCube has reported evidence for neutrino emission from the Seyfert-II galaxy NGC 1068 and the blazar TXS 0506+056. The former was identified in a time-integrated search, and the latter using time-dependent and multi-messenger methods. A natural question is: are sources identified in time-integrated searches consistent with a steady neutrino source? We present a non-parametric method, TAUNTON, to answer this question. Motivated by the Cram\'er-von Mises test, TAUNTON is an unbinned single-hypothesis method to identify deviations in neutrino data from the steady hypothesis. An advantage of TAUNTON is that it is sensitive to arbitrary deviations from the steady hypothesis. Here we present results of TAUNTON applied to a 8.7 year data-set of muon neutrino track events; the same data used to identify NGC 1068 at 4.2$\sigma$. We use TAUNTON on 51 objects, a subset (with >4 signal neutrinos) of the 110 objects studied in the NGC 1068 publication. We set a threshold of 3$\sigma$ pre-trial to identify sources inconsistent with the steady hypothesis. TAUNTON reports a p-value of 0.9 for NGC 1068, consistent with the steady hypothesis. Using the time integrated fit, data for TXS 0506+056 is consistent with the steady hypothesis at 1.7$\sigma$. Time variability is not identified for TXS 0506+056 because there are few neutrino events.