Predicting Group Choices from Group Profiles

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that machine learning combined with innovative group profile definitions and data augmentation can significantly improve the accuracy of predicting group choices over traditional aggregation strategies, outperforming human predictions.

Contribution

The paper introduces a machine learning approach with novel group profile definitions and data augmentation techniques to better predict group choices, surpassing standard methods and human performance.

Findings

Proposed method outperforms baseline aggregation strategies.

Robust against missing preference data.

Achieves higher accuracy than humans in group choice prediction.

Abstract

Group recommender systems (GRSs) identify items to recommend to a group of people by aggregating group members' individual preferences into a group profile, and selecting the items that have the largest score in the group profile. The GRS predicts that these recommendations would be chosen by the group, by assuming that the group is applying the same preference aggregation strategy as the one adopted by the GRS. However, predicting the choice of a group is more complex since the GRS is not aware of the exact preference aggregation strategy that is going to be used by the group. To this end, the aim of this paper is to validate the research hypothesis that, by using a machine learning approach and a data set of observed group choices, it is possible to predict a group's final choice, better than by using a standard preference aggregation strategy. Inspired by the Decision Scheme theory, which first tried to address the group choice prediction problem, we search for a group profile definition that, in conjunction with a machine learning model, can be used to accurately predict a group choice. Moreover, to cope with the data scarcity problem, we propose two data augmentation methods, which add synthetic group profiles to the training data, and we hypothesize they can further improve the choice prediction accuracy. We validate our research hypotheses by using a data set containing 282 participants organized in 79 groups. The experiments indicate that the proposed method outperforms baseline aggregation strategies when used for group choice prediction. The method we propose is robust with the presence of missing preference data and achieves a performance superior to what humans can achieve on the group choice prediction task. Finally, the proposed data augmentation method can also improve the prediction accuracy.