Mitigating potentially hazardous asteroid impacts revisited

TL;DR

This study investigates how the orbital dynamics of asteroid impactor fragments influence Earth impact risk, emphasizing the importance of timing and impactor orientation in mitigation strategies.

Contribution

It introduces high-precision N-body simulations considering orbital shear, self-gravity, and rotation effects to analyze fragment cloud evolution and impact probabilities.

Findings

Fragment clouds become triaxial ellipsoids due to orbital shear.

Impact cross-section varies with impactor orbit and interception timing.

Optimal interception occurs at the asteroid's orbital pericentre.

Abstract

Context: Potentially hazardous asteroids (PHA) in Earth-crossing orbits pose a constant threat to life on Earth. Several mitigation methods have been proposed, and the most feasible technique appears to be the disintegration of the impactor and the generation of a fragment cloud by explosive penetrators at interception. However, mitigation analyses tend to neglect the effect of orbital dynamics on the trajectory of fragments. Aims: We aim to study the effect of orbital dynamics of the impactor's cloud on the number of fragments that hit the Earth, assuming different interception dates. We investigate the effect of self-gravitational cohesion and the axial rotation of the impactor. Methods: We computed the orbits of 10^5 fragments with a high-precision direct N-body integrator of the eighth order, running on GPUs. We considered orbital perturbations from all large bodies in the Solar System and the self-gravity of the cloud fragments. Results: Using a series of numerical experiments, we show that orbital shear causes the fragment cloud to adopt the shape of a triaxial ellipsoid. The shape and alignment of the triaxial ellipsoid are strongly modulated by the cloud's orbital trajectory and, hence, the impact cross-section of the cloud with respect to the Earth. Therefore, the number of fragments hitting the Earth is strongly influenced by the orbit of the impactor and the time of interception. A minimum number of impacts occur for a well-defined orientation of the impactor rotational axis, depending on the date of interception. Conclusions: To minimise the lethal consequences of an PHA's impact, a well-constrained interception timing is necessary. A too-early interception may not be ideal for PHAs in the Apollo or Aten groups. Thus, we find that the best time to intercept PHA is when it is at the pericentre of its orbit.