The Growth of E-Bike Use: A Machine Learning Approach

TL;DR

This paper uses machine learning models to predict e-bike sales growth in the U.S., analyze factors influencing adoption, and quantify environmental and health benefits, providing valuable insights for policymakers.

Contribution

It introduces a combined ARIMA and Random Forest approach to forecast e-bike sales and assess their impacts, which is novel in integrating predictive modeling with environmental and health impact analysis.

Findings

Projected e-bike sales of 1.3 million in 2025 and 2.113 million in 2028.

E-bike usage reduced CO2 emissions by approximately 15,738 kg in 2022.

E-bike users burned around 716,631 kilocalories in 2022.

Abstract

We present our work on electric bicycles (e-bikes) and their implications for policymakers in the United States. E-bikes have gained significant popularity as a fast and eco-friendly transportation option. As we strive for a sustainable energy plan, understanding the growth and impact of e-bikes is crucial for policymakers. Our mathematical modeling offers insights into the value of e-bikes and their role in the future. Using an ARIMA model, a supervised machine-learning algorithm, we predicted the growth of e-bike sales in the U.S. Our model, trained on historical sales data from January 2006 to December 2022, projected sales of 1.3 million units in 2025 and 2.113 million units in 2028. To assess the factors contributing to e-bike usage, we employed a Random Forest regression model. The most significant factors influencing e-bike sales growth were disposable personal income and popularity. Furthermore, we examined the environmental and health impacts of e-bikes. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated the reduction in carbon emissions due to e-bike use and the calories burned through e-biking. Our findings revealed that e-bike usage in the U.S. resulted in a reduction of 15,737.82 kilograms of CO2 emissions in 2022. Additionally, e-bike users burned approximately 716,630.727 kilocalories through their activities in the same year. Our research provides valuable insights for policymakers, emphasizing the potential of e-bikes as a sustainable transportation solution. By understanding the growth factors and quantifying the environmental and health benefits, policymakers can make informed decisions about integrating e-bikes into future energy and transportation strategies.