Weather Sensitive High Spatio-Temporal Resolution Transportation Electric Load Profiles For Multiple Decarbonization Pathways

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel method for generating high-resolution hourly electric load profiles for the transportation sector, considering weather sensitivity and decarbonization pathways, aiding power system planning.

Contribution

It presents an innovative downscaling approach that incorporates weather and charging strategies to produce detailed load profiles for future decarbonization scenarios.

Findings

Profiles developed for 2050 Western U.S. interconnect

Method is open source and transferable to other regions

Profiles support power system planning and analysis

Abstract

Electrification of transport compounded with climate change will transform hourly load profiles and their response to weather. Power system operators and EV charging stakeholders require such high-resolution load profiles for their planning studies. However, such profiles accounting whole transportation sector is lacking. Thus, we present a novel approach to generating hourly electric load profiles that considers charging strategies and evolving sensitivity to temperature. The approach consists of downscaling annual state-scale sectoral load projections from the multi-sectoral Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) into hourly electric load profiles leveraging high resolution climate and population datasets. Profiles are developed and evaluated at the Balancing Authority scale, with a 5-year increment until 2050 over the Western U.S. Interconnect for multiple decarbonization pathways and climate scenarios. The datasets are readily available for production cost model analysis. Our open source approach is transferable to other regions.