Heterogeneous Vulnerability of Zero-Carbon Power Grids under Climate-Technological Changes

TL;DR

This paper investigates the vulnerabilities of zero-carbon power grids under climate and technological changes, revealing that simply increasing renewable capacity is insufficient without considering operational constraints and spatial-temporal variability.

Contribution

It models the zero-carbon grid under diverse future scenarios, highlighting the importance of spatiotemporal dynamics and operational constraints in reliability assessments.

Findings

Need for 61-105% more firm, zero-emission capacity

Increasing wind and solar alone is ineffective due to congestion

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity affects grid vulnerability

Abstract

The transition to decarbonized energy systems has become a priority globally to mitigate carbon emissions and, therefore, climate change. However, the vulnerabilities of zero-carbon power grids under climatic and technological changes have not been thoroughly examined. In this study, we focus on modeling the zero-carbon grid using a dataset that captures diverse future climatic-technological scenarios, with New York State as a case study. By accurately representing the topology and operational constraints of the power grid, we identify spatiotemporal heterogeneity in vulnerabilities arising from the interplay of renewable resource availability, high load, and severe transmission line congestion. Our findings reveal a need for 61-105\% more firm, zero-emission capacity to ensure system reliability. Merely increasing wind and solar capacity is ineffective in improving reliability due to transmission congestion and spatiotemporal variations in vulnerabilities. This underscores the importance of considering spatiotemporal dynamics and operational constraints when making decisions regarding additional investments in renewable resources.