A Strategic Framework for Optimal Decisions in Football 1-vs-1 Shot-Taking Situations: An Integrated Approach of Machine Learning, Theory-Based Modeling, and Game Theory

TL;DR

This paper introduces an integrated framework combining machine learning, theory-based modeling, and game theory to analyze shot-taking strategies in football, providing a novel metric (xSOT) for decision evaluation.

Contribution

It proposes a new data-driven approach with a novel metric (xSOT) for analyzing football shot situations, integrating ML and game theory for strategic decision-making.

Findings

xSOT correlates highly with existing metrics

Framework validated against baseline models

Application to real-world football scenarios

Abstract

Complex interactions between two opposing agents frequently occur in domains of machine learning, game theory, and other application domains. Quantitatively analyzing the strategies involved can provide an objective basis for decision-making. One such critical scenario is shot-taking in football, where decisions, such as whether the attacker should shoot or pass the ball and whether the defender should attempt to block the shot, play a crucial role in the outcome of the game. However, there are currently no effective data-driven and/or theory-based approaches to analyzing such situations. To address this issue, we proposed a novel framework to analyze such scenarios based on game theory, where we estimate the expected payoff with machine learning (ML) models, and additional features for ML models were extracted with a theory-based shot block model. Conventionally, successes or failures (1 or 0) are used as payoffs, while a success shot (goal) is extremely rare in football. Therefore, we proposed the Expected Probability of Shot On Target (xSOT) metric to evaluate players' actions even if the shot results in no goal; this allows for effective differentiation and comparison between different shots and even enables counterfactual shot situation analysis. In our experiments, we have validated the framework by comparing it with baseline and ablated models. Furthermore, we have observed a high correlation between the xSOT and existing metrics. This alignment of information suggests that xSOT provides valuable insights. Lastly, as an illustration, we studied optimal strategies in the World Cup 2022 and analyzed a shot situation in EURO 2020.