Smoothing of numerical series by the triangle method on the example of hungarian gdp data 1992-2022 based on approximation by series of exponents

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates how exponential series and triangle smoothing can effectively approximate and smooth Hungarian GDP data from 1992 to 2022, improving accuracy and handling outliers.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach combining the triangle smoothing method with exponential series approximation for economic time series data.

Findings

Exponential series can effectively approximate GDP data.

Triangle smoothing enhances data accuracy and outlier handling.

Method improves approximation quality over traditional polynomial methods.

Abstract

In practice , quite often there is a need to describe the values set by means of a table in the form of some functional dependence . The observed values , due to certain circumstances , have an error . For approximation, it is advisable to use a functional dependence that would allow smoothing out the errors of the observation results. Approximation allows you to determine intermediate values of functions that are not listed among the data in the observation table. The use of exponential series for data approximation allows you to get a result no worse than from approximation by polynomials In the economic scientific literature, approximation in the form of power functions, for example, the Cobb-Douglas function, has become widespread. The advantage of this type of approximation can be called a simple type of approximating function , and the disadvantage is that in nature not all processes can be described by power functions with a given accuracy. An example is the GDP indicator for several decades . For this case , it is difficult to find a power function approximating a numerical series . But in this case, as shown in this article, you can use exponential series to approximate the data. In this paper, the time series of Hungary's GDP in the period from 1992 to 2022 was approximated by a series of thirty exponents of a complex variable. The use of data smoothing by the method of triangles allows you to average the data and increase the accuracy of approximation . This is of practical importance if the observed random variable contains outliers that need to be smoothed out.