Interstellar Object Uncertainty Evolution and Effect on Fast Flyby Delivery and Required Delta-V

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the uncertainties in navigating to interstellar objects for rapid flyby missions, highlighting the significant delta-v requirements and the necessity for autonomous navigation due to high ephemeris uncertainties.

Contribution

It models ISO trajectory uncertainties over time and quantifies their impact on flyby delivery accuracy and navigation delta-v needs.

Findings

Uncertainties can require hundreds to thousands of m/s of delta-v.

Delivery accuracy can be reduced to hundreds of kilometers.

Autonomous navigation becomes essential for successful flybys.

Abstract

Interstellar objects (ISOs) are small bodies that can travel through our solar system from other star systems. When present in our solar system, they represent an opportunity to study the properties and origins of these objects, as well as the potential for cross-pollination of material between star systems. With current propulsion technology, rendezvous with these objects is likely infeasible, and thus the maximum science return results from a rapid response flyby and impactor. However, while trajectories to ISOs may be feasible, their potentially high ephemeris uncertainties and high-speed hyperbolic orbits present significant challenges to navigation. In this paper we assess these challenges by modeling the uncertainties of reachable synthetic ISOs as a function of time, as derived by measurements from ground observatories and an approaching spacecraft. From these uncertainties we derive the final delivery accuracy of fast flyby spacecraft to the ISO and required statistical delta-v for navigation. We find that these two challenges can lead to hundreds of meters-per-second or even kilometers-per-second of required statistical delta-v for navigation, reduce delivery accuracy to hundreds of kilometers, and make autonomous navigation a requirement.