Quantifying the multi-scale and multi-resource impacts of large-scale adoption of renewable energy sources

TL;DR

This paper analyzes how the variability and co-variability of renewable energy sources and load affect power system stability and prices, focusing on New York's transition to increased renewables and highlighting the importance of resource diversity.

Contribution

It characterizes multi-scale co-variability of renewables and load, and quantifies their impacts on price volatility during New York's renewable energy transition.

Findings

Renewable resources vary up to 17% annually, reduced to 8% when combined.

Hourly renewable volatility can reach ±100%, affecting prices.

Annual price volatility is 9%, with up to 56% fluctuation in price spikes.

Abstract

The variability and intermittency of renewable energy sources pose several challenges for power systems operations, including energy curtailment and price volatility. In power systems with considerable renewable sources, co-variability in renewable energy supply and electricity load can intensify these outcomes. In this study, we examine the impacts of renewable co-variability across multiple spatial and temporal scales on the New York State power system, which is undergoing a major transition toward increased renewable generation. We characterize the spatiotemporal co-variability of renewable energy-generating resources and electricity load and investigate the impact of climatic variability on electricity price volatility. We use an accurate, reduced-form representation of the New York power system, which integrates additional wind and solar power resources to meet the state's energy targets through 2030. Our results demonstrate that renewable energy resources can vary up to 17% from the annual average, though combining different resources reduces the overall variation to about 8%. On an hourly basis, renewable volatility is substantially greater and may vary up to 100% above and below average. This results in a 9% variation in annual average electricity prices and up to a 56% variation in the frequency of price spikes. While yearly average price volatility is influenced mainly by hydropower availability, daily and hourly price volatility is influenced by solar and wind availability.