Discovery Forecasts of the Diffuse Ultra-High-Energy Neutrino Flux with IceCube-Gen2

TL;DR

This paper forecasts the potential for IceCube-Gen2 to discover diffuse ultra-high-energy neutrino fluxes within 10-20 years, highlighting its transformative scientific impact.

Contribution

It provides the first detailed forecast of UHE neutrino discovery prospects with IceCube-Gen2 using advanced flux predictions and detector modeling.

Findings

Most benchmark flux models could be discovered within 10 years

Many flux models are distinguishable from each other

Next-generation telescopes have transformative potential

Abstract

The discovery of ultra-high-energy (UHE) neutrinos has the potential to offer unique insight into fundamental questions. To capitalize on the upcoming opportunity provided by new UHE neutrino telescopes, we provide state-of-the-art forecasts of the discovery of a diffuse flux of UHE neutrinos over the next 10-20 years, focusing on neutrino radio-detection in the planned IceCube-Gen2 detector. We use state-of-the-art flux predictions and detector modeling. We find that, even under conservative analysis choices, most benchmark UHE neutrino flux models from the literature may be discovered within 10 years of detector exposure, with many discoverable sooner, and may be distinguished from each other. Our results demonstrate the transformative potential of next-generation UHE neutrino telescopes.