Explaining conflict violence in terms of conflict actor dynamics

TL;DR

This paper analyzes conflict violence in Colombia by examining local conflict actor dynamics and their influence on violence patterns over different regions and eras, using a mathematical model to explain variations.

Contribution

It introduces a simple mathematical model linking conflict actor behaviors to violence severity variations across space and time in Colombia.

Findings

Variations in violence severity relate to changes in conflict actor strength ratios.

Scaling values of event lethality distributions vary with conflict periods and regions.

The model explains how local actor dynamics influence conflict violence patterns.

Abstract

We study the severity of conflict-related violence in Colombia at an unprecedented granular scale in space and across time. Splitting the data into different geographical regions and different historically-relevant eras, we uncover variations in the patterns of conflict severity which we then explain in terms of local conflict actors' different collective behaviors and/or conditions using a simple mathematical model of conflict actors' grouping dynamics (coalescence and fragmentation). Specifically, variations in the approximate scaling values of the distributions of event lethalities can be explained by the changing strength ratio of the local conflict actors for distinct conflict periods and organizational regions. In this way, our findings open the door to a new granular spectroscopy of human conflicts in terms of local conflict actor strength ratios for any armed conflict.