The Effect of COVID-19 on Cryptocurrencies and the Stock Market Volatility -- A Two-Stage DCC-EGARCH Model Analysis

TL;DR

This study analyzes how COVID-19 affected the volatility and spillover effects between cryptocurrencies and stock markets using a two-stage DCC-EGARCH model, revealing significant impacts and risk variations during the pandemic.

Contribution

It introduces a two-stage multivariate EGARCH model with DCC to measure COVID-19's impact on financial market volatility and spillovers, incorporating VaR and CFVaR analyses.

Findings

Cryptocurrency and stock market volatilities increased post-COVID-19.

Stock indices showed higher VaR losses than cryptocurrencies during the pandemic.

Cryptocurrencies, especially Ethereum, exhibited resilience in CFVaR measurements.

Abstract

This research examines the correlations between the return volatility of cryptocurrencies, global stock market indices, and the spillover effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we employed a two-stage multivariate volatility exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model with an integrated dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) approach to measure the impact on the financial portfolio returns from 2019 to 2020. Moreover, we used value-at-risk (VaR) and value-at-risk measurements based on the Cornish-Fisher expansion (CFVaR). The empirical results show significant long- and short-term spillover effects. The two-stage multivariate EGARCH model's results show that the conditional volatilities of both asset portfolios surge more after positive news and respond well to previous shocks. As a result, financial assets have low unconditional volatility and the lowest risk when there are no external interruptions. Despite the financial assets' sensitivity to shocks, they exhibit some resistance to fluctuations in market confidence. The VaR performance comparison results with the assets portfolios differ. During the COVID-19 outbreak, the Dow (DJI) index reports VaR's highest loss, followed by the S&P500. Conversely, the CFVaR reports negative risk results for the entire cryptocurrency portfolio during the pandemic, except for the Ethereum (ETH).