Thailand Asset Value Estimation Using Aerial or Satellite Imagery

TL;DR

This paper introduces a novel land price prediction model for Thailand that combines aerial imagery analysis with deep learning and ensemble methods, significantly improving accuracy over traditional approaches.

Contribution

It proposes a similarity-based asset valuation model using a Siamese neural network with EfficientNet, integrating aerial imagery and tabular data for enhanced land price prediction.

Findings

Achieved an AUC of approximately 0.81, outperforming baseline models.

Reduced mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) from 25% to 20%.

Improved recall from 59.26% to 69.55% in land price prediction.

Abstract

Real estate is a critical sector in Thailand's economy, which has led to a growing demand for a more accurate land price prediction approach. Traditional methods of land price prediction, such as the weighted quality score (WQS), are limited due to their reliance on subjective criteria and their lack of consideration for spatial variables. In this study, we utilize aerial or satellite imageries from Google Map API to enhance land price prediction models from the dataset provided by Kasikorn Business Technology Group (KBTG). We propose a similarity-based asset valuation model that uses a Siamese-inspired Neural Network with pretrained EfficientNet architecture to assess the similarity between pairs of lands. By ensembling deep learning and tree-based models, we achieve an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of approximately 0.81, outperforming the baseline model that used only tabular data. The appraisal prices of nearby lands with similarity scores higher than a predefined threshold were used for weighted averaging to predict the reasonable price of the land in question. At 20\% mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), we improve the recall from 59.26\% to 69.55\%, indicating a more accurate and reliable approach to predicting land prices. Our model, which is empowered by a more comprehensive view of land use and environmental factors from aerial or satellite imageries, provides a more precise, data-driven, and adaptive approach for land valuation in Thailand.