Modeling correlated uncertainties in stochastic compartmental models

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Markov process-based model for contact rate uncertainties in disease spread, demonstrating that correlated noise models like Ornstein-Uhlenbeck better capture social behavior and prevent underestimating disease severity compared to white noise.

Contribution

It proposes the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process as a realistic stochastic contact rate model and analyzes its impact on epidemic models, improving accuracy over traditional white noise assumptions.

Findings

White noise underestimates disease spread severity.

OU process models social contact correlations effectively.

Analytical stationary distribution derived for SIS model.

Abstract

We consider compartmental models of communicable disease with uncertain contact rates. Stochastic fluctuations are often added to the contact rate to account for uncertainties. White noise, which is the typical choice for the fluctuations, leads to significant underestimation of the disease severity. Here, starting from reasonable assumptions on the social behavior of individuals, we model the contacts as a Markov process which takes into account the temporal correlations present in human social activities. Consequently, we show that the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process is the correct model for the stochastic contact rate. We demonstrate the implication of our model on two examples: a Susceptibles-Infected-Susceptibles (SIS) model and a Susceptibles-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model of the COVID-19 pandemic. In particular, we observe that both compartmental models with white noise uncertainties undergo transitions that lead to the systematic underestimation of the spread of the disease. In contrast, modeling the contact rate with the OU process significantly hinders such unrealistic noise-induced transitions. For the SIS model, we derive its stationary probability density analytically, for both white and correlated noise. This allows us to give a complete description of the model's asymptotic behavior as a function of its bifurcation parameters, i.e., the basic reproduction number, noise intensity, and correlation time. For the SEIR model, where the probability density is not available in closed form, we study the transitions using Monte Carlo simulations. Our study underscores the necessity of temporal correlations in stochastic compartmental models and the need for more empirical studies that would systematically quantify such correlations.