Ranking Handball Teams from Statistical Strength Estimation

TL;DR

This paper introduces a statistical methodology using the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution to estimate and rank handball teams' strength across different championships, demonstrating its practical relevance with real data.

Contribution

The paper develops a novel ranking method for handball teams based on a flexible statistical model that accounts for goal count dispersion, applicable across various competitions.

Findings

The new ranking correlates with actual sports outcomes.

The model effectively handles non-equi-dispersion in goal data.

Application to European women's handball shows practical relevance.

Abstract

In this work, we present a methodology to estimate the strength of handball teams using a statistical method. We propose the use of the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution to model the number of goals scored by a team as a flexible discrete distribution which can handle situations of non equi-dispersion. From its parameters, we derive a mathematical formula to determine the strength of a team. We propose a ranking based on the estimated strengths to compare teams across different championships. Applied to female handball club data from European competitions over the season 2022/2023, we show that our new ranking can have an echo in real sports events and the results.