Reducing cartel recruitment is the only way to lower violence in Mexico

TL;DR

This paper models cartel dynamics in Mexico, showing that reducing recruitment is crucial for lowering violence, as incapacitation alone can inadvertently increase homicides and cartel size.

Contribution

It introduces a novel model linking cartel recruitment, incapacitation, and violence, emphasizing the importance of targeting recruitment to effectively reduce cartel populations and violence.

Findings

Cartels have between 160,000 and 185,000 members in 2022.

Recruitment of at least 350 people weekly is needed to prevent cartel collapse.

Reducing recruitment decreases violence and cartel size, unlike incapacitation which can increase violence.

Abstract

Every year, Mexican cartels lose many members due to conflict with other cartels and arrests. Yet, despite their losses, cartels have managed to increase violence for years. We address this puzzle by leveraging data on the number of homicides, missing persons and arrests in Mexico for the past ten years, along with information on the interactions among cartels aiming to estimate the size of cartels' population. We model recruitment, incapacitation by the state, conflict and saturation as the reasons why cartels vary in size. Results show that by 2022 cartels have between 160,000 and 185,000 units, becoming one of the top employers in the country. Recruiting at least 350 people per week is essential to avoid their collapse due to the aggregate effect of incapacitation, conflict and saturation. Furthermore, we test the effects of two policy scenarios aimed at decreasing cartel violence. We show that given the state of violence, increasing current levels of incapacitation leads to a rise in homicides and cartel members. Conversely, reducing recruitment provides substantial benefits in terms of violence reduction and decreasing cartel population, calling for structural investments in a proactive strategy that targets individuals at risk rather than a traditional reactive approach centred around incapacitation.