Peru Mining: Analysis and Forecast of Mining Production in Peru Using Time Series and Data Science Techniques

TL;DR

This paper develops an interactive RStudio application using time series analysis to forecast Peru's mineral extraction, aiding strategic planning and sustainable development in the mining sector.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive data science tool combining visualization and ARIMA modeling for mining forecast in Peru, enhancing decision-making capabilities.

Findings

Forecasts for 2027 include copper, gold, zinc, silver, lead, iron, tin, molybdenum, and cadmium production.

The application enables exploration of geographic and statistical mining data interactively.

Predictions support strategic planning and resource management in Peruvian mining industry.

Abstract

Peruvian mining plays a crucial role in the country's economy, being one of the main producers and exporters of minerals worldwide. In this project, an application was developed in RStudio that utilizes statistical analysis and time series modeling techniques to understand and forecast mineral extraction in different departments of Peru. The application includes an interactive map that allows users to explore Peruvian geography and obtain detailed statistics by clicking on each department. Additionally, bar charts, pie charts, and frequency polygons were implemented to visualize and analyze the data. Using the ARIMA model, predictions were made on the future extraction of minerals, enabling informed decision-making in planning and resource management within the mining sector. The application provides an interactive and accessible tool to explore the Peruvian mining industry, comprehend trends, and make accurate forecasts. These predictions for 2027 in total annual production are as follows: Copper = 2,694,957 MT, Gold = 72,817.47 kg Fine, Zinc = 1,369,649 MT, Silver = 3,083,036 MT, Lead = 255,443 MT, Iron = 15,776,609 MT, Tin = 29,542 MT, Molybdenum = 35,044.66 MT, and Cadmium = 724 MT. These predictions, based on historical data, provide valuable information for strategic decision-making and contribute to the sustainable development of the mining industry in Peru.