COVID-19 incidence in the Republic of Ireland: A case study for network-based time series models

TL;DR

This study evaluates the effectiveness of network-based time series models, specifically GNAR, in predicting COVID-19 cases across Irish counties, demonstrating improved accuracy over traditional models and highlighting the importance of network structure.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive assessment of GNAR models on various networks for COVID-19 prediction, showing their robustness and potential for infectious disease modeling.

Findings

GNAR models outperform ARIMA in COVID-19 case prediction.

Different network structures are optimal for different pandemic phases.

Model residuals suggest robustness to network density variations.

Abstract

The generalised network autoregressive (GNAR) model conceptualises time series on the vertices of a network; it has an autoregressive component for temporal dependence and a spatial autoregressive component for dependence between neighbouring vertices in the network. Consequently, the choice of underlying network is essential. This paper assesses the performance of GNAR models on different networks in predicting COVID-19 cases for the 26 counties in the Republic of Ireland, over two distinct pandemic phases (restricted and unrestricted), characterised by inter-county movement restrictions. Ten static networks are constructed, in which vertices represent counties, and edges are built upon neighbourhood relations, such as railway lines. We find that a GNAR model based on the fairly sparse Economic hub network explains the data best for the restricted pandemic phase while the fairly dense 21-nearest neighbour network performs best for the unrestricted phase. Across phases, GNAR models have higher predictive accuracy than standard ARIMA models which ignore the network structure. For county-specific predictions, in pandemic phases with more lenient or no COVID-19 regulation, the network effect is not quite as pronounced. The results indicate some robustness to the precise network architecture as long as the densities of the networks are similar. An analysis of the residuals justifies the model assumptions for the restricted phase but raises questions regarding their validity for the unrestricted phase. While generally performing better than ARIMA models which ignore network effects, there is scope for further development of the GNAR model to better model complex infectious diseases, including COVID-19.