System Science in Politics -- Europe and the War in Ukraine

TL;DR

This paper applies system science and Lagrange statistics to compare natural and social systems, analyzing phases of order and disorder, and discusses implications for peace, conflict, and the Ukraine war.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of Lagrange statistics to political systems, drawing parallels with physical phases to explain societal states and conflicts.

Findings

Three phases of political systems: autocratic, democratic, global.

Phase diagrams illustrate transitions between societal states.

Separation by NATO suggested as a solution for Ukraine conflict.

Abstract

Peace means order, and war brings disorder and chaos to any society. But order and disorder are not only observed in wars, in many systems they are the dominant property. Understanding order and disorder enables us to understand the structure of systems. Order and disorder are also part of the Lagrange Principle, and as statistics is valid in all systems, we may regard Lagrange statistics as a mathematical basis of system science. Two systems out of natural and social science are compared: materials of trillions of atoms and politics of millions of people. Lagrange statistics leads to three phases of homogeneous systems: in materials we have the states: solid, liquid, gas, depending on two Lagrange parameters, temperature T (the mean energy of atoms) and pressure p. In politics we have three states: autocratic, democratic, global, depending on two Lagrange parameters, standard of living T (the mean capital of people) and political pressure p. The three phases of each system are compared in the p-T phase diagram: Different phases of one system cannot coexist as nearest neighbors: Water will dissolve ice by exchange of atoms and heat. This leads to the present climate crisis. Democracies will dissolve autocracies by exchange of goods, ideas, and people like guest workers. This is the peaceful history of the EU and has led to the aggressive reaction of Russia in the GDR, Hungary, \v{C}SR, and now in the Ukraine. At the end of war peaceful coexistence will not be possible between Russia and Ukraine. Only separation by a new Iron Curtain guaranteed by NATO can lead to a long-time armistice.