Mining for Unknown Unknowns

TL;DR

This paper proposes a formal framework using Formal Concept Analysis to systematically identify and explore unknown unknowns, which are future contingencies not previously described or anticipated.

Contribution

It introduces a novel application of Formal Concept Analysis to systematically search for and organize unknown unknowns, enhancing proactive contingency planning.

Findings

Framework effectively identifies potential unknown unknowns

Systematic approach improves contingency analysis

Facilitates proactive risk management

Abstract

Unknown unknowns are future relevant contingencies that lack an ex ante description. While there are numerous retrospective accounts showing that significant gains or losses might have been achieved or avoided had such contingencies been previously uncovered, getting hold of unknown unknowns still remains elusive, both in practice and conceptually. Using Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) - a subfield of lattice theory which is increasingly applied for mining and organizing data - this paper introduces a simple framework to systematically think out of the box and direct the search for unknown unknowns.