Analysis of a competitive respiratory disease system with quarantine

TL;DR

This paper develops a mathematical model for two competing respiratory diseases with quarantine effects, analyzing their dynamics, thresholds, and conditions for extinction or coexistence to inform public health strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a SEIQR model with multiple strains and quarantine effects, providing new insights into disease competition and control thresholds.

Findings

Disease-free equilibrium is globally stable if reproductive number ≤ 1.

The dominant strain outcompetes the other in co-infection scenarios.

Quarantine reduces secondary cases and disease persistence when thresholds are met.

Abstract

In the world of epidemics, the mathematical modeling of disease co-infection is gaining importance due to its contributions to mathematics and public health. Because the co-infection may have a double burden on families, countries, and the universe, understanding its dynamics is paramount. We study a SEIQR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-quarantined-recovered) deterministic epidemic model with a single host population and multiple strains (-$c$ and -$i$) to account for two competitive diseases with quarantine effects. To model the role of quarantine and isolation efficacy in disease dynamics, we utilize a linear function. Further, we shed light on the standard endemic threshold and determine the conditions for extinction or coexistence with and without forming co-infection. Next, we show the dependence of the criticality based on specific parameters of the different pathogens. We found that the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) of the single-strain model always exists and is globally asymptotically stable (GAS) if $\tilde{\mathcal{R}}_k^q\leq 1$, else, a stable endemic equilibrium. On top of that, the model has forward bifurcation at $\tilde{\mathcal{R}}_k^q = 1$. In the case of a two-strain model, the strain with a large reproduction number outcompetes the one with a smaller reproduction number. Further, if the co-infected quarantine reproduction number is less than one, the infections of already infected individuals will die out, and co-infection will persist in the population otherwise. We note that the quarantine and isolation of exposed and infected individuals will reduce the number of secondary cases below one, consequently reducing the disease complications if the total number of people in the quarantine is at most the critical value.