NORAD Tracking of the February 2022 Starlink Satellites (and the Possible Immediate Loss of 32 Satellites)

TL;DR

This paper reviews NORAD's tracking of the February 2022 Starlink satellite launch, highlighting the loss of 38 satellites, including 32 that were never tracked, and discusses the challenges in explaining these losses due to lack of telemetry data.

Contribution

It critically examines proposed physical mechanisms for satellite loss and emphasizes the difficulty in explaining the immediate loss of 32 satellites due to missing telemetry data.

Findings

38 satellites were lost out of 49 launched

32 satellites were never tracked by NORAD

Existing physical mechanisms cannot fully explain the immediate satellite loss

Abstract

The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) tracking of the SpaceX Starlink satellite launch on February 03, 2022 is reviewed. Of the 49 Starlink satellites released into orbit, 38 were eventually lost. Thirty-two of the satellites were never tracked by NORAD. There have been three articles written proposing physical mechanisms to explain the satellite losses. It is argued that none of the proposed mechanisms can explain the immediate loss of 32 of the 49 satellites. The non-availability of telemetry data from the lost satellites has hindered the search for a physical mechanism to explain the density increase observed in a short time interval.