Local Eviction Moratoria and the Spread of COVID-19

TL;DR

This study evaluates whether eviction moratoria during COVID-19 effectively slowed the virus's spread, finding little evidence of a significant impact through various analytical methods.

Contribution

It applies advanced synthetic control methods to assess the impact of eviction moratoria on COVID-19 spread, challenging previous assumptions about their effectiveness.

Findings

Little to no impact of moratoria on COVID-19 cases

Eviction moratoria did not significantly reduce COVID-19 deaths

Results are consistent across different analytical approaches

Abstract

At various stages during the initial onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, various US states and local municipalities enacted eviction moratoria. One of the main aims of these moratoria was to slow the spread of COVID-19 infections. We deploy a semiparametric difference-in-differences approach with an event study specification to test whether the lifting of these local moratoria led to an increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths. Our main findings, across a range of specifications, are inconclusive regarding the impact of the moratoria - especially after accounting for the number of actual evictions and conducting the analysis at the county level. We argue that recently developed augmented synthetic control (ASCM) methods are more appropriate in this setting. Our ASCM results also suggest that the lifting of eviction moratoria had little to no impact on COVID-19 cases and deaths. Thus, it seems that eviction moratoria had little to no robust effect on reducing the spread of COVID-19 throwing into question its use as a non-pharmaceutical intervention.