The second data release from the European Pulsar Timing Array III. Search for gravitational wave signals

TL;DR

This paper reports on the search for a gravitational wave background using the European Pulsar Timing Array data, finding marginal to significant evidence for such a signal, and discusses the implications and future prospects.

Contribution

It presents the first combined analysis of EPTA and InPTA data for gravitational wave detection, with improved noise modeling and multiple data processing pipelines.

Findings

Marginal evidence for GWB with full data set (Bayes factor 4)

Strong evidence for GWB with 10.3-year subset (Bayes factor 60)

Consistent amplitude measurement (~2.5×10^{-15}) when spectral index fixed at 13/3

Abstract

We present the results of the search for an isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) at nanohertz frequencies using the second data release of the European Pulsar Timing Array (EPTA) for 25 millisecond pulsars and a combination with the first data release of the Indian Pulsar Timing Array (InPTA). We analysed (i) the full 24.7-year EPTA data set, (ii) its 10.3-year subset based on modern observing systems, (iii) the combination of the full data set with the first data release of the InPTA for ten commonly timed millisecond pulsars, and (iv) the combination of the 10.3-year subset with the InPTA data. These combinations allowed us to probe the contributions of instrumental noise and interstellar propagation effects. With the full data set, we find marginal evidence for a GWB, with a Bayes factor of four and a false alarm probability of $4\%$. With the 10.3-year subset, we report evidence for a GWB, with a Bayes factor of $60$ and a false alarm probability of about $0.1\%$ ($\gtrsim 3\sigma$ significance). The addition of the InPTA data yields results that are broadly consistent with the EPTA-only data sets, with the benefit of better noise modelling. Analyses were performed with different data processing pipelines to test the consistency of the results from independent software packages. The inferred spectrum from the latest EPTA data from new generation observing systems is rather uncertain and in mild tension with the common signal measured in the full data set. However, if the spectral index is fixed at 13/3, the two data sets give a similar amplitude of ($2.5\pm0.7)\times10^{-15}$ at a reference frequency of $1\,{\rm yr}^{-1}$. By continuing our detection efforts as part of the International Pulsar Timing Array (IPTA), we expect to be able to improve the measurement of spatial correlations and better characterise this signal in the coming years.