Optimizing Credit Limit Adjustments Under Adversarial Goals Using Reinforcement Learning

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates how reinforcement learning can be used to optimize credit limit adjustments in banking, balancing revenue maximization and risk minimization through data-driven policies.

Contribution

It introduces an offline reinforcement learning approach for credit limit decisions, outperforming traditional strategies and providing a novel framework for data-driven banking policies.

Findings

Double Q-learning outperforms other strategies.

Optimal policies are complex and data-driven.

Alternative data does not always improve predictions.

Abstract

Reinforcement learning has been explored for many problems, from video games with deterministic environments to portfolio and operations management in which scenarios are stochastic; however, there have been few attempts to test these methods in banking problems. In this study, we sought to find and automatize an optimal credit card limit adjustment policy by employing reinforcement learning techniques. Because of the historical data available, we considered two possible actions per customer, namely increasing or maintaining an individual's current credit limit. To find this policy, we first formulated this decision-making question as an optimization problem in which the expected profit was maximized; therefore, we balanced two adversarial goals: maximizing the portfolio's revenue and minimizing the portfolio's provisions. Second, given the particularities of our problem, we used an offline learning strategy to simulate the impact of the action based on historical data from a super-app in Latin America to train our reinforcement learning agent. Our results, based on the proposed methodology involving synthetic experimentation, show that a Double Q-learning agent with optimized hyperparameters can outperform other strategies and generate a non-trivial optimal policy not only reflecting the complex nature of this decision but offering an incentive to explore reinforcement learning in real-world banking scenarios. Our research establishes a conceptual structure for applying reinforcement learning framework to credit limit adjustment, presenting an objective technique to make these decisions primarily based on data-driven methods rather than relying only on expert-driven systems. We also study the use of alternative data for the problem of balance prediction, as the latter is a requirement of our proposed model. We find the use of such data does not always bring prediction gains.