Reconstruction, forecasting, and stability of chaotic dynamics from partial data

TL;DR

This paper introduces data-driven LSTM-based methods for reconstructing, forecasting, and analyzing the stability of chaotic systems from partial observations, outperforming traditional approaches in accuracy and stability inference.

Contribution

It develops and analyzes LSTM-based neural networks, including physics-informed variants, for full-state reconstruction and stability analysis of chaotic systems from limited data.

Findings

LSTM networks can accurately forecast hidden variables in chaotic systems.

The proposed methods correctly infer Lyapunov exponents and vectors.

PI-LSTM outperforms LH-LSTM in reconstructing chaotic dynamics with limited data.

Abstract

The forecasting and computation of the stability of chaotic systems from partial observations are tasks for which traditional equation-based methods may not be suitable. In this computational paper, we propose data-driven methods to (i) infer the dynamics of unobserved (hidden) chaotic variables (full-state reconstruction); (ii) time forecast the evolution of the full state; and (iii) infer the stability properties of the full state. The tasks are performed with long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, which are trained with observations (data) limited to only part of the state: (i) the low-to-high resolution LSTM (LH-LSTM), which takes partial observations as training input, and requires access to the full system state when computing the loss; and (ii) the physics-informed LSTM (PI-LSTM), which is designed to combine partial observations with the integral formulation of the dynamical system's evolution equations. First, we derive the Jacobian of the LSTMs. Second, we analyse a chaotic partial differential equation, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky (KS), and the Lorenz-96 system. We show that the proposed networks can forecast the hidden variables, both time-accurately and statistically. The Lyapunov exponents and covariant Lyapunov vectors, which characterize the stability of the chaotic attractors, are correctly inferred from partial observations. Third, the PI-LSTM outperforms the LH-LSTM by successfully reconstructing the hidden chaotic dynamics when the input dimension is smaller or similar to the Kaplan-Yorke dimension of the attractor. This work opens new opportunities for reconstructing the full state, inferring hidden variables, and computing the stability of chaotic systems from partial data.