Inland waterway transport accident analysis of Bangladesh: based on location, time, and regression approach

TL;DR

This study analyzes Bangladesh's waterway accidents from 1995 to 2019 using regression models to identify key factors, accident-prone areas, and temporal patterns, aiming to improve safety and inform prevention strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a regression-based approach to identify accident factors and prone areas, providing a foundation for accident prevention and driver assistance systems in Bangladesh.

Findings

Identification of key factors influencing waterway accidents

Mapping of accident-prone areas and temporal distribution patterns

Validation of regression models with multiple datasets

Abstract

Bangladesh, situated in the foothills of the Himalayas in South Asia, is a nation characterized by its extensive river network. This riverine state comprises various features such as small hill ranges, meandering seasonal creeks, muddy canals, picturesque rivers, their tributaries, and branching streams. Numerous cities and ports have been established along both sides of these rivers, forming an inseparable connection to the country's civilization and agricultural system. These waterways serve as vital channels for communication and transportation of goods due to their easy accessibility and cost-effectiveness. In Bangladesh, waterway accidents have been a persistent issue. Every year, a significant number of people suffer injuries, fatalities, or go missing due to shipping accidents. While major naval accidents briefly generate public outcry and prompt investigations by the media and authorities, this study aims to examine accident data spanning from 1995 to 2019. The goal is to identify the primary factors contributing to these accidents using multiple linear regression theory in various mathematical combinations. The model's accuracy is validated using different datasets. Additionally, this study delves into the identification of accident-prone areas and the temporal distribution of accidents, offering a comprehensive understanding of accident occurrences. The findings of this research will aid stakeholders and authorities in making informed decisions to prevent waterway accidents. Furthermore, the study presents recommendations focused on accident path planning and avoidance, as well as establishing a theoretical foundation for driver assistance systems.