Study on Extreme Precipitation Trends in Northeast China Based on Non-Stationary Generalized Extreme Value Distribution

TL;DR

This study analyzes the trends and mechanisms of extreme precipitation in Northeast China from 1959 to 2017 using a non-stationary GEV model, revealing contrasting patterns in early and late summer and their influencing factors.

Contribution

It introduces the first application of a non-stationary GEV model to analyze extreme precipitation trends and mechanisms in Northeast China, considering seasonal differences.

Findings

Negative EP trends in early summer with increasing return levels.

Positive EP trends in late summer with slight decrease in 2-year return level.

EP influenced by northeast cold vortex and cold air effects.

Abstract

Northeast China is the learding food productive base of China. The extreme precipitation (EP) event seriously impacts agricultural production and social life. Given the limited understanding of the EP in Northeast China, we investigate the trend and potential risk of the EP in Northeast China(107 stations) during 1959-2017, especially in early and later summer. For the first time, the non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) model is used to analyze the trend and potential risk of EP in Northeast China. Moreover, the mechanisms of EP trends over Northeast China in early and later summer were studied separately. Negative trends dominate EP in early summer but positive trends prevail in last summer. It is reasonable to discuss separately in the two periods. Meanwhile, all return levels are shown to increase trends in EP in early summer, corresponding to more frequent EP events. Nevertheless, in later summer, the 2-year return level decreases in location parameter diminish slightly, and the rare EP (20, 50, and 100-year return levels) slightly increase with scale parameter. Also, our results show that normal EP frequently occurs in Liaoning Province, and extreme EP is more likely to occur in Jilin Province and Heilongjiang Province. The increase of EP in early summer is mainly influenced by the northeast cold vortex. However, in later summer, the effect of cold air on EP is stronger in Northeast China, which gives a clear explanation that the EP does not increase. This study analyzed the trends and mechanism of return level and EP, which is beneficial for the development of policy strategies.