Aligning the Western Balkans power sectors with the European Green Deal

TL;DR

This study explores how the Western Balkans can transition to climate neutrality by 2050 using renewable energy, highlighting the potential and challenges of integrating VRE into their power sectors.

Contribution

It provides a detailed modeling analysis of renewable energy potential and its role in decarbonizing the Western Balkans' power sectors, considering regional cooperation and energy security.

Findings

Renewable potential is 94.4 GW, 68% higher than previous estimates.

VRE supports decarbonization with 17% utilization under net-zero scenarios.

Limited impact of VRE on hydropower cascade operation, but increased solar shifts balancing patterns.

Abstract

Located in Southern Europe, the Drina River Basin is shared between Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia. The power sectors of the three countries have an exceptionally high dependence on coal for power generation. In this paper, we analyse different development pathways for achieving climate neutrality in these countries and explore the potential of variable renewable energy (VRE) and its role in power sector decarbonization. We investigate whether hydro and non-hydro renewables can enable a net-zero transition by 2050 and how VRE might affect the hydropower cascade shared by the three countries. The Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) was used to develop a model representation of the countries' power sectors. Findings show that the renewable potential of the countries is a significant 94.4 GW. This potential is 68% higher than previous assessments have shown. Under an Emission Limit scenario assuming net zero by 2050, 17% of this VRE potential is utilized to support the decarbonization of the power sectors. Additional findings show a limited impact of VRE technologies on total power generation output from the hydropower cascade. However, increased solar deployment shifts the operation of the cascade to increased short-term balancing, moving from baseload to more responsive power generation patterns. Prolonged use of thermal power plants is observed under scenarios assuming high wholesale electricity prices, leading to increased emissions. Results from scenarios with low cost of electricity trade suggest power sector developments that lead to decreased energy security.