Assessing the optimal contributions of renewables and carbon capture and storage toward carbon neutrality by 2050

TL;DR

This paper uses a linear optimization model to evaluate how renewables and carbon capture can contribute to Japan's goal of carbon neutrality by 2050, highlighting their combined potential and economic benefits.

Contribution

It introduces a linear optimization approach to quantify the optimal mix of renewables and CCS for carbon reduction in Japan, considering economic and resilience factors.

Findings

Potential 55-67% emission reduction by 2050 with combined technologies

Increased carbon pricing enhances further reductions

Optimal technology mix depends on resilience and deployment regimes

Abstract

Building on the carbon reduction targets agreed in the Paris Agreements, many nations have renewed their efforts toward achieving carbon neutrality by the year 2050. In line with this ambitious goal, nations are seeking to understand the appropriate combination of technologies which will enable the required reductions in such a way that they are appealing to investors. Around the globe, solar and wind power lead in terms of renewable energy deployment, while carbon capture and storage (CCS) is scaling up toward making a significant contribution to deep carbon cuts. Using Japan as a case study nation, this research proposes a linear optimization modeling approach to identify the potential contributions of renewables and CCS toward maximizing carbon reduction and identifying their economic merits over time. Results identify that the combination of these three technologies could enable a carbon dioxide emission reduction of between 55 and 67 percent in the energy sector by 2050 depending on resilience levels and CCS deployment regimes. Further reductions are likely to emerge with increased carbon pricing over time.