A tale of two faults: Statistical reconstruction of the 1820 Flores Sea earthquake using tsunami observations alone

TL;DR

This study employs Bayesian methods and tsunami simulations to infer the most probable earthquake source for the 1820 Flores Sea tsunami, highlighting the Walanae/Selayar Fault as the likely origin based on historical data.

Contribution

It introduces a Bayesian framework combining tsunami simulations and historical observations to identify probable earthquake sources in a complex fault region.

Findings

Walanae/Selayar Fault more closely matches tsunami observations

Neither fault source fully explains the data under seismic constraints

Suggests potential for a different or combined fault rupture source

Abstract

Using a Bayesian approach we compare anecdotal tsunami runup observations from the 29 December 1820 Flores Sea earthquake with close to 200,000 tsunami simulations to determine the most probable earthquake parameters causing the tsunami. Using a dual hypothesis of the source earthquake either originating from the Flores Thrust or the Walanae/Selayar Fault, we found that neither source perfectly matches the observational data, particularly while satisfying seismic constraints of the region. However, there is clear quantitative evidence that a major earthquake on the Walanae/Selayar Fault more closely aligns with historical records of the tsunami, and earthquake shaking. The simulated data available from this study alludes to the potential for a different source in the region or the occurrence of an earthquake near where both faults potentially merge and simultaneously rupture similar to the 2016 Kaikoura, New Zealand event.