Guidance note on best statistical practices for TOAR analyses

TL;DR

This paper provides comprehensive guidance on best statistical practices for trend analysis in TOAR publications, emphasizing consistent communication of uncertainty and evaluating common techniques.

Contribution

It introduces standardized recommendations for statistical trend analysis and uncertainty communication tailored for TOAR's diverse research applications.

Findings

Guidelines for reporting trends and uncertainties

Evaluation of strengths and weaknesses of common methods

Recommendations R1 to R9 for statistical practices

Abstract

The aim of this guidance note is to provide recommendations on best statistical practices and to ensure consistent communication of statistical analysis and associated uncertainty across TOAR publications. The scope includes approaches for reporting trends, a discussion of strengths and weaknesses of commonly used techniques, and calibrated language for the communication of uncertainty. The focus of this guidance note is placed on trend analysis, which is expected to be the main statistical topic of interest across many TOAR-II focus working groups, but some of the recommendations and principles provided below are also valid for other applications. Recommendations are highlighted and numbered from R1 to R9.