A generalised multi-factor deep learning electricity load forecasting model for wildfire-prone areas

TL;DR

This paper introduces a robust multi-factor GRU-based deep learning model for electricity load forecasting in wildfire-prone areas, significantly improving accuracy and stability over existing models across multiple real-world networks.

Contribution

The study develops a generalized multi-factor GRU model incorporating climate and regional factors, outperforming LSTM and reducing forecasting errors during wildfire seasons.

Findings

MAPE decreased by 30.73% with proposed features

GRU model outperforms LSTM with 10.06% lower MSE

Forecast accuracy around 3% MAPE, saving AU$80.46 million annually

Abstract

This paper proposes a generalised and robust multi-factor Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) based Deep Learning (DL) model to forecast electricity load in distribution networks during wildfire seasons. The flexible modelling methods consider data input structure, calendar effects and correlation-based leading temperature conditions. Compared to the regular use of instantaneous temperature, the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is decreased by 30.73% by using the proposed input feature selection and leading temperature relationships. Our model is generalised and applied to eight real distribution networks in Victoria, Australia, during the wildfire seasons of 2015-2020. We demonstrate that the GRU-based model consistently outperforms another DL model, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), at every step, giving average improvements in Mean Squared Error (MSE) and MAPE of 10.06% and 12.86%, respectively. The sensitivity to large-scale climate variability in training data sets, e.g. El Ni\~no or La Ni\~na years, is considered to understand the possible consequences for load forecasting performance stability, showing minimal impact. Other factors such as regional poverty rate and large-scale off-peak electricity use are potential factors to further improve forecast performance. The proposed method achieves an average forecast MAPE of around 3%, giving a potential annual energy saving of AU\$80.46 million for the state of Victoria.