The quality of school track assignment decisions by teachers

TL;DR

This paper investigates the effects and quality of school track assignment decisions by teachers, using a causal approach and regression discontinuity design to analyze how these decisions impact student outcomes in the Netherlands.

Contribution

It introduces a flexible causal method to separate and identify positive and negative tracking effects, providing new insights into the accuracy and impact of teacher track recommendations.

Findings

Between 40% and 100% of reassigned students are affected by track changes.

Most students benefit from higher, more demanding tracks.

Teacher assignments are likely unbiased but noisy, with parental decisions potentially reducing this noise.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the effects of educational tracking and the quality of track assignment decisions. We motivate our analysis using a model of optimal track assignment under uncertainty. This model generates predictions about the average effects of tracking at the margin of the assignment process. In addition, we recognize that the average effects do not measure noise in the assignment process, as they may reflect a mix of both positive and negative tracking effects. To test these ideas, we develop a flexible causal approach that separates, organizes, and partially identifies tracking effects of any sign or form. We apply this approach in the context of a regression discontinuity design in the Netherlands, where teachers issue track recommendations that may be revised based on test score cutoffs, and where in some cases parents can overrule this recommendation. Our results indicate substantial tracking effects: between 40% and 100% of reassigned students are positively or negatively affected by enrolling in a higher track. Most tracking effects are positive, however, with students benefiting from being placed in a higher, more demanding track. While based on the current analysis we cannot reject the hypothesis that teacher assignments are unbiased, this result seems only consistent with a significant degree of noise. We discuss that parental decisions, whether to follow or deviate from teacher recommendations, may help reducing this noise.