Spatio-temporal smoothing and dynamics of different electricity flexibility options for highly renewable energy systems -- Case study for Norway

TL;DR

This study models and analyzes how spatial and temporal smoothing, through flexibility options like storage and transmission, can reduce variability and improve reliability in highly renewable energy systems, using Norway as a case study.

Contribution

It introduces a stochastic modeling framework for renewable production and demand, evaluating the impact of flexibility options on system stability and risk reduction.

Findings

Flexibility options significantly reduce production deviations.

Combining storage and transmission enhances system stability.

Spatial and temporal smoothing improve renewable energy reliability.

Abstract

In this article, we investigate mismatch of renewable electricity production to demand and how this is affected by flexibility options on the supply side. We assess the impact of spatial and temporal smoothing on reliability of production and whether they can reduce risks of variation. As a case study we pick a simplified (partial) representation of the Norwegian electricity system and focus on wind power. We represent regional electricity production and demand through two stochastic processes: the wind capacity factors are modelled as a two-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and electricity demand consists of realistic base load and temperature-induced load coming from a deseasonalised autoregressive process. We validate these processes, that we have trained on historical data, through Monte Carlo simulations allowing us to generate many statistically representative weather years. For the investigated realisations (weather years) we study deviations of production from demand under different wind capacities, and introduce different scenarios where flexibility options like storage and transmission is available. Our analysis shows that simulated loss values are reduced significantly by cooperation and any mode of flexibility. Combining storage and transmission leads to even more synergies and helps to stabilise production levels and thus adequacy of renewable power systems.