Green Hydrogen Cost-Potentials for Global Trade

TL;DR

This study provides detailed, spatially-explicit cost potentials for green hydrogen production in 28 countries until 2050, highlighting the dominance of solar-rich regions and the importance of decentralized PV-based production for global energy strategies.

Contribution

It offers the first comprehensive, temporally- and spatially-explicit cost potential curves for green hydrogen across multiple countries using an optimizing energy systems approach.

Findings

Huge hydrogen potentials (>1,500 PWhLHV/a) by 2050.

Cost-effective hydrogen production (<2.30 EUR/kg) mainly in solar-rich regions.

Decentralized PV-based hydrogen production is generally preferred.

Abstract

Green hydrogen is expected to be traded globally in future greenhouse gas neutral energy systems. However, there is still a lack of temporally- and spatially-explicit cost-potentials for green hydrogen considering the full process chain, which are necessary for creating effective global strategies. Therefore, this study provides such detailed cost-potential-curves for 28 selected countries worldwide until 2050, using an optimizing energy systems approach based on open-field photovoltaics (PV) and onshore wind. The results reveal huge hydrogen potentials (>1,500 PWhLHV/a) and 79 PWhLHV/a at costs below 2.30 EUR/kg in 2050, dominated by solar-rich countries in Africa and the Middle East. Decentralized PV-based hydrogen production, even in wind-rich countries, is always preferred. Supplying sustainable water for hydrogen production is needed while having minor impact on hydrogen cost. Additional costs for imports from democratic regions are only total 7% higher. Hence, such regions could boost the geostrategic security of supply for greenhouse gas neutral energy systems.