Computation of a possible Tunguska's strewn field

TL;DR

This study models the Tunguska event to determine if macroscopic fragments could have survived the airburst and predicts their likely fall area, providing insights into the event's impact dynamics and strewn field.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed fall model incorporating ablation, pancake expansion, and dark flight, to estimate fragment survival and strewn field location for the Tunguska event.

Findings

Fragments with 14-85 MPa strength can survive the airburst.

Predicted strewn field is about 11 km northwest of the epicenter.

Cheko Lake is unlikely to be the impact crater from the event.

Abstract

On June 30, 1908, at about 0h 14.5m UTC, the Tunguska Event (TE) occurred, most likely caused by the fall of a small stony asteroid of about 50-80 meters in diameter over the basin of the Tunguska River (Central Siberia). This paper will establish whether stony macroscopic fragments could have survived the TCB's airburst (Tunguska Cosmic Body) and where they might have fallen. For this purpose, we have implemented a fall model to describe the mass ablation, pancake expansion, airburst and fragments's dark flight. In our scenario, the fragments have a higher mean strength than the main body due to Weibull's law. The results, for a TCB with a kinetic energy of 15 Mt, atmospheric speed in the range of 11-20 km/s, trajectory inclination of $35^\circ$ and average strength in the range of 3-70 MPa, tell us that for a macroscopic fragment with a mean strength between 14-85 MPa would be possible to survive the high pressure and temperature airburst to reach the ground. The falling speed of the fragments is in the range of 0.8-0.5 km/s, favouring their burial in the permafrost. The range of mean strength values for the TCB's macroscopic fragment appears physically plausible if we consider the falls of Carancas in 2007, with an estimated strength in the range of 20-40 MPa. So our possible strewn field, computed for a typical fall speed of $10 \pm 3 $ km/s, is located about 11 km northwest from the epicentre, with an area of about $140~\textrm{km}^2$. Finally, Cheko Lake, which by some authors is considered an impact crater, falls about 3.5 km outside the strewn fields at 3 sigma level and it is unlikely that it could be a real impact crater: only if the TCB's trajectory had an azimuth in the range $150^\circ - 180^\circ$ would be in the strewn field area, but this is not consistent with the most likely trajectory azimuth.