# Evaluation of the Radius of Maximum Wind over the North Indian Basin with the help of Tropical Cyclone characteristics

## TL;DR

This paper presents a new method to accurately estimate the Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW) in tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean, improving disaster forecasting by reducing estimation errors compared to existing approaches.

## Contribution

The study introduces a local regression model for RMW estimation using historical data, validated with statistical measures, and demonstrates superior accuracy over previous methods.

## Key findings

- Error percentage of the proposed method ranges from -63% to 50%.
- The method outperforms existing approaches in statistical significance.
- Numerous cyclone cases validate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

## Abstract

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) have devastating effects on several coastal regions worldwide. Precautionary knowledge about TC characteristics such as wind direction, wind speed, epicenter position, condensed vapor pressure measure, and radius of maximum can be highly valuable in disaster management and economic planning. Existing literature has focused on TC wind direction, intensity, cloud shape, and epicenter position, but there has been limited research on estimation of the Radius of Maximum Wind (RMW). Accurate estimation of RMW is crucial as errors can significantly impact wind and storm surge assessments and forecasts. In this study, our objective is to determine the RMW over the North Indian Ocean (NIO). We chose this region due to its location surrounded by the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, making it one of the six globally prominent areas prone to TCs. Our study is on the relationship between the center of the TC, the estimated pressure drop at the center, and the RMW, using historical observations and mathematical correlations. To address missing parameters in the best track database of the Indian Meteorological Department, we employ a local regression model. We validate the accuracy of our developed method using two statistical measures: error percentage and T-test. Numerous TC cases are discussed in the paper over the NIO. Our findings indicates that the suggested method exhibits an error percentage ranging from approximately $-63\%$ to $50\%$ when compared to the best track data provided by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). In contrast, the error percentages for two other references \cite{bib21, bib22} with the same best track data range from approximately $-26\%$ to $200\%$. Moreover, the T-test results demonstrate that our method outperforms than the other approaches in terms of statistical significance.