Data-driven uncertainty quantification for constrained stochastic differential equations and application to solar photovoltaic power forecast data

TL;DR

This paper develops a new data-driven stochastic differential equation model with a time-dependent upper bound for short-term forecast error assessment, applied to solar power data, providing improved uncertainty quantification and confidence intervals.

Contribution

It introduces a novel nonlinear, time-inhomogeneous SDE with a Jacobi-type diffusion for constrained forecast errors, and proposes a kernel smoothing method for transition density estimation.

Findings

Model accurately fits solar PV forecast data

Provides pathwise confidence bands for forecast errors

Demonstrates improved uncertainty quantification over existing methods

Abstract

In this work, we extend the data-driven It\^{o} stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework for the pathwise assessment of short-term forecast errors to account for the time-dependent upper bound that naturally constrains the observable historical data and forecast. We propose a new nonlinear and time-inhomogeneous SDE model with a Jacobi-type diffusion term for the phenomenon of interest, simultaneously driven by the forecast and the constraining upper bound. We rigorously demonstrate the existence and uniqueness of a strong solution to the SDE model by imposing a condition for the time-varying mean-reversion parameter appearing in the drift term. The normalized forecast function is thresholded to keep such mean-reversion parameters bounded. The SDE model parameter calibration is applied to user-selected approximations of the likelihood function. Another novel contribution is estimating the unknown transition density of the forecast error process with a tailored kernel smoothing technique with the control variate method, coupling an adequate SDE to the original one. We provide a theoretical study about how to choose the optimal bandwidth. We fit the model to the 2019 photovoltaic (PV) solar power daily production and forecast data in Uruguay, computing the daily maximum solar PV production estimation. Two statistical versions of the constrained SDE model are fit, with the beta and truncated normal distributions as proxies for the transition density. Empirical results include simulations of the normalized solar PV power production and pathwise confidence bands generated through an indirect inference method. An objective comparison of optimal parametric points associated with the two selected statistical approximations is provided by applying our innovative kernel smoothing estimation technique of the transition function of the forecast error process.