The Dark Side of Using Dark Sirens to Constrain the Hubble-Lema\^itre Constant

TL;DR

This study assesses how astrophysical environment-induced localization errors in dark sirens affect the measurement of the Hubble-Lemaître constant, finding that accuracy remains robust below 300 sources but degrades beyond that.

Contribution

It introduces a Bayesian framework to evaluate the impact of localization errors on dark siren-based cosmological measurements and proposes tests to verify spatial localizations.

Findings

Precision of H0 measurement remains unaffected with fewer than 300 dark sirens.

Incorrect localizations start affecting results when the sample exceeds 300 sources.

Systematic errors dominate if 10% of 300 sources are mislocalized.

Abstract

Dark sirens, i.e., gravitational-wave (GW) sources without electromagnetic counterparts, are new probes of the expansion of the universe. The efficacy of this method relies on correctly localizing the host galaxies. However, recent theoretical studies have shown that astrophysical environments could mislead the spatial localization by distorting the GW signals. It is unclear whether and to what degree the incorrect spatial localizations of dark sirens would impair the accuracy of the measurement of the cosmological parameters. To address this issue, we consider the future observations of dark sirens using the Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope, and we design a Bayesian framework to access the precision of measuring the Hubble-Lema\^itre constant $H_0$. Interestingly, we find that the precision is not compromised when the number of well-localized dark sirens is significantly below $300$, even in the extreme scenario that all the dark sirens are localized incorrectly. As the number exceeds $300$, the incorrect spatial localizations start to produce statistically noticeable effects, such as a slow convergence of the posterior distribution of $H_0$. We propose several tests that can be used in future observations to verify the spatial localizations of dark sirens. Simulations of these tests suggest that incorrect spatial localizations will dominate a systematic error of $H_0$ if as much as $10\%$ of a sample of $300$ well-localized dark sirens are affected by their environments. Our results have important implications for the long-term goal of measuring $H_0$ to a precision of $<1\%$ using dark sirens.