Wargames as Data: Addressing the Wargamer's Trilemma

TL;DR

This paper discusses the use of cyber wargames as a synthetic data source for security analysis, highlighting their design considerations amid limited empirical data in cyberspace.

Contribution

It provides an analysis of the design decisions involved in using cyber wargames as a data-generating method for security research.

Findings

Cyber wargames are increasingly used for strategic security analysis.

Design choices in cyber wargames impact data quality and research outcomes.

The paper offers insights into optimizing wargame design for better data generation.

Abstract

Policymakers often want the very best data with which to make decisions--particularly when concerned with questions of national and international security. But what happens when this data is not available? In those instances, analysts have come to rely on synthetic data-generating processes--turning to modeling and simulation tools and survey experiments among other methods. In the cyber domain, where empirical data at the strategic level are limited, this is no different--cyber wargames are quickly becoming a principal method for both exploring and analyzing the security challenges posed by state and non-state actors in cyberspace. In this chapter, we examine the design decisions associated with this method.