Masked Multi-Step Probabilistic Forecasting for Short-to-Mid-Term Electricity Demand

TL;DR

This paper introduces MMMPF, a novel neural network framework that effectively combines past data and known future information to improve probabilistic short-to-mid-term electricity demand forecasting, outperforming existing methods.

Contribution

The paper proposes MMMPF, a new framework that integrates future information into neural network-based demand forecasting, enhancing accuracy and uncertainty quantification.

Findings

MMMPF outperforms existing ML-based demand forecasting methods.

Models trained with MMMPF can generate accurate probabilistic quantiles.

The framework effectively incorporates future weather and calendar data.

Abstract

Predicting the demand for electricity with uncertainty helps in planning and operation of the grid to provide reliable supply of power to the consumers. Machine learning (ML)-based demand forecasting approaches can be categorized into (1) sample-based approaches, where each forecast is made independently, and (2) time series regression approaches, where some historical load and other feature information is used. When making a short-to-mid-term electricity demand forecast, some future information is available, such as the weather forecast and calendar variables. However, in existing forecasting models this future information is not fully incorporated. To overcome this limitation of existing approaches, we propose Masked Multi-Step Multivariate Probabilistic Forecasting (MMMPF), a novel and general framework to train any neural network model capable of generating a sequence of outputs, that combines both the temporal information from the past and the known information about the future to make probabilistic predictions. Experiments are performed on a real-world dataset for short-to-mid-term electricity demand forecasting for multiple regions and compared with various ML methods. They show that the proposed MMMPF framework outperforms not only sample-based methods but also existing time-series forecasting models with the exact same base models. Models trainded with MMMPF can also generate desired quantiles to capture uncertainty and enable probabilistic planning for grid of the future.