Drastic changes before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, revealed by exploratory data analysis

TL;DR

This study uses exploratory data analysis on seismic records to identify pre-earthquake anomalies, revealing significant changes before the 2011 Tohoku earthquake that could improve earthquake prediction methods.

Contribution

It demonstrates the effectiveness of EDA in detecting seismic anomalies and potential precursors to large earthquakes, a novel application in seismic statistical analysis.

Findings

Pre-earthquake swarm activity was observed.

Increased frequency and magnitude of earthquakes before 2011 Tohoku.

Larger earthquakes became more likely, with M9 expected every two years.

Abstract

Predicting earthquakes is of the utmost importance, especially to those countries of high risk, and although much effort has been made, it has yet to be realised. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of statistical approaches in seismic studies to the extent that an old theory is believed without verification. Seismic records of time and magnitude in Japan were analysed by exploratory data analysis (EDA). EDA is a parametric statistical approach based on the characteristics of data and is suitable for data-driven investigations. The distribution style of each dataset was determined, and the important parameters were found. This enabled us to identify and evaluate the anomalies in the data. Before the huge 2011 Tohoku earthquake, swarm earthquakes occurred before the main earthquake at improbable frequencies. The frequency and magnitude of all earthquakes increased. Both changes made larger earthquakes more likely to occur: even an M9 earthquake was expected every two years. From these simple measurements, the EDA succeeded in extracting useful information. Detecting and evaluating anomalies using this approach for every set of data would lead to a more accurate prediction of earthquakes.