Vaccination in a two-strain model with cross-immunity and antibody-dependent enhancement

TL;DR

This paper models the complex interactions between two viruses, considering cross-immunity and antibody-dependent enhancement, to analyze how vaccination strategies impact the coexistence or eradication of dengue and Zika.

Contribution

It introduces a two-strain model incorporating cross-immunity and ADE, providing conditions for vaccination to ensure disease eradication or persistence.

Findings

Vaccination can either control or worsen virus spread depending on parameters.

Conditions for global stability of disease-free state are derived.

Scenarios identified where vaccination impacts virus coexistence.

Abstract

Dengue and Zika incidence data and the latest research have raised questions about how dengue vaccine strategies might be impacted by the emergence of Zika virus. Existing antibodies to one virus might temporarily protect or promote infection by the other through antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE). With this condition, understanding the dynamics of propagation of these two viruses is of great importance when implementing vaccines. In this work, we analyze the effect of vaccination against one strain, in a two-strain model that accounts for cross-immunity and ADE. Using basic and invasion reproductive numbers, we examined the dynamics of the model and provide conditions to ensure the stability of the disease-free equilibrium. We provide conditions on cross-immunity, ADE and vaccination rate under which the vaccination could ensure the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. The results indicate scenarios in which vaccination against one strain may improve or worsen the control of the other, as well as contribute to the eradication or persistence of one or both viruses in the population.