Ensuring reliability: what is the optimal time for power plant maintenance in Texas as the climate changes?

TL;DR

This study examines how climate change impacts the timing of low-demand periods for power plant maintenance in Texas, highlighting potential shifts due to warming temperatures and their implications for reliability.

Contribution

It provides an analysis of historical data to identify trends in shoulder seasons and projects future changes in their timing due to climate warming.

Findings

Shoulder seasons in Texas have remained within specific calendar ranges since 1996.

Temperature minima in degree days are shifting earlier in spring and later in fall.

By the mid-2040s, these minima may merge, affecting maintenance scheduling and reliability.

Abstract

We analyzed data for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) to assess shoulder seasons -- that is, the 45 days of lowest total energy use and peak demand in the spring and fall typically used for power plant maintenance -- and whether their occurrence has changed over time. Over the period 1996--2022, the shoulder seasons never started earlier than late March nor later than mid-October, corresponding well with the minimum of total degree days. In the temperature record 1959--2022, the minimum in degree days in the spring moved earlier, from early March to early February, and in the fall moved later, from early to mid-November. Warming temperatures might cause these minima in degree days to merge into a single annual minimum in December or January by the mid-2040s, a time when there is a non-trivial risk of 1-day record energy use and peak demand from winter storms.