Disease progression model anchored around clinical diagnosis in longitudinal cohorts: example of Alzheimer's disease and related dementia

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian multivariate mixed model that aligns longitudinal ADRD data into a latent disease timeline, revealing long-term progression patterns and individual variability relative to clinical diagnosis.

Contribution

It presents a novel methodology to model disease progression using latent variables guided by clinical diagnosis, applicable to complex longitudinal cohort data.

Findings

Latent disease time spans over twenty years before diagnosis.

CSF tau markers precede brain atrophy by 5 years and cognitive decline by 10 years.

Individual characteristics significantly influence the sequence and timing of disease markers.

Abstract

Background. Alzheimer's disease and related dementia (ADRD) are characterized by multiple and progressive anatomo clinical changes. Yet, modeling changes over disease course from cohort data is challenging as the usual timescales are inappropriate and time-to-clinical diagnosis is available on small subsamples of participants with short follow-up durations prior to diagnosis. One solution to circumvent this challenge is to define the disease time as a latent variable. Methods: We developed a multivariate mixed model approach that realigns individual trajectories into the latent disease time to describe disease progression. Our methodology exploits the clinical diagnosis information as a partially observed and approximate reference to guide the estimation of the latent disease time. The model estimation was carried out in the Bayesian Framework using Stan. We applied the methodology to 2186 participants of the MEMENTO study with 5-year follow-up. Repeated measures of 12 ADRD markers stemmed from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF), brain imaging and cognitive tests were analyzed. Result: The estimated latent disease time spanned over twenty years before the clinical diagnosis. Considering the profile of a woman aged 70 with a high level of education and APOE4 carrier (the main genetic risk factor for ADRD), CSF markers of tau proteins accumulation preceded markers of brain atrophy by 5 years and cognitive decline by 10 years. We observed that individual characteristics could substantially modify the sequence and timing of these changes. Conclusion: Our disease progression model does not only realign trajectories into the most homogeneous way. It accounts for the inherent residual inter-individual variability in dementia progression to describe the long-term changes according to the years preceding clinical diagnosis, and to provide clinically meaningful information on the sequence of events.